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Tricky ICE, slightly bullish NYMEX

Published Thursday, May 14th, 2015

So much about order being restored on ICE. A spectacular failure at the resistance area is sending the contract crashing down whilst NYMEX also decided enough is enough at its crucial resistance but the latter contract has not fallen out of bed and therefore it remains more on the positive side.


June ICE: The contract very briefly broke above the 34-day M/A resistance but never really challenged the 100-day M/A which is currently 43.79. Remaining longs probably did not have the opportunity to take profit on the balance of their positions. Any long positions should be closed out by now as the market has opened with a downside gap this morning, well below the 42.94 range support and also below the 5 and 8-day M/As at 42.71 and 42.60. It is strongly advised to be flat and wait for developments. The contract is right on the 13-day M/A at the time of writing which is presently at 42.40. A close below this support is a sell. Such a move will probably mean the test of the recent low on the June contract at 41.30. Re-establishing long positions is only recommended on a close back over the 42.94 resistance. Under the latter scenario the aforementioned 100-day M/A should be shortly in sight. The contract is lacking conviction in either way for the medium or long-term and it is not able to make up its mind regarding the next leg, A close below the 13-day is bearish for the short-term and above the 42.94 range is bullish for the immediate future.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.