Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Up-trend intact but a bit erratic. Stick with the trend and watch RBOB at 206.18.

Published Monday, May 18th, 2015

The contracts are still not harmonious and technically aligned, but are not that out of tune with one another. July WTI is just below all the short term (s/t) MAs, with the lowest being around 60.73 (8 day), and Brent is below the 5 and 13 but above the 8. The rest are above all the s/t MAs, which is constructive. The stochastics are negative on the crudes but positive on the rest. This is likely to cause the contracts to continue to be erratic, but where support holds and further upside is likely, i.e. buy dips and stick with the recent up-trend. The key to the next leg is RBOB and what it does around the pivotal c/p resistance at 206.18. This is the most important resistance level on the board. A move confirmed by a close (m/c) over would take it and the rest of the complex higher. July WTI has slipped below the s/t MAs. This is probably only temporary, but it needs to m/c back over the lowest around 60.73. The 13 day is around 60.81 and the 5 day around 61.06 – closes over them all would be constructive and suggest a run back to the recent highs culminating at 63.62. Once the s/t MAs are m/cd over there is not much resistance. The key support is at 60.03 – 34 week – then 58.14 – 8 month. This contract is fine whilst the 34 week at 60.03 holds.

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Posted by Robin Bieber