Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Be flat on ICE, NYMEX is bearish.

Published Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015

The headline above has not been changed for a good reason. That is because the technical picture is very much the same as it was 24 hours ago. It is unchanged despite a neutral ICE contract closing lower and a bearish NYMEX contract gaining some ground yesterday. It is still advised to watch the short-term daily M/As on ICE as the price action around them will define the next leg. On NYMEX supports are anticipated to be tested today.

 

July ICE: It was said yesterday that a close over the 13-day M/A is a buy and bears should only sell short if the 8-day M/A were settled below. These two “extremities” were only 20 odd points apart yesterday yet the contract managed to settle between them. Neither buy nor sell signal was given. This difference is even narrower today as the 13-day is currently at 41.76 and the 8-day is at 41.63. A close over the higher of them is still a buy for a jump up to the 34-day at 42.61. A close below the lower of these M/As is still a sell for a drop down to the 41.00 range support. An eventual close below the latter is very bearish and in that case this contract will have a downside objective in the form of the weekly low in June 2014 at 38.55.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.