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Downtrend is still intact on ICE and uptrend is in question on NYMEX

Published Thursday, June 18th, 2015

ICE is still set to go lower but the NYMEX contract failed rather spectacularly at the nearest resistance area yesterday. Technically it has not turned neutral or bearish but longs have to be prepared to act quickly to protect their positions in case this contract keeps coming lower today.


July ICE: Weaker prices yesterday have been followed by further selling this morning. This selling has pushed the price of the front-month contract below the nearest support of 41.80, the daily low on the July contract on May 5. It might be an idea to take profit on a small part of any short positions if the 41.80 level is broken back above on a sustained basis today. Otherwise, shorts are advised to cover their positions just above the 41.19 range support, say, around 41.35. These positions then should be re-established if 41.00 is settled below. Should the contract turn and trade higher the remainder of short positions should be closed out on a close above the 34-day M/A at around 42.30 and it is only recommended to go long on a close over the highest of the daily short-term M/As, the 13-day that is currently at 42.50. The current technical state of the market suggests supports will come under further pressure.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.