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ICE could be turning south – NYMEX is still bullish

Published Thursday, June 11th, 2015

NYMEX bulls probably had a less worrisome night than their European counterparts. Technicals were positive on both contracts yesterday morning. Whilst this optimism was confirmed on NYMEX by gaining further ground ICE lost some value. It did not close below important supports but it is slipping below them this morning.

July ICE: The 100-day contract M/A was settled below. It is currently 43.57. The 43.31 range support held but the contract has broken below this morning. This is the level that was singled out in yesterday’s report below where longs ought to protect their positions. Given yesterday’s and this morning’s performance it is only logical to get rid of half of any long positions and go completely flat if 43.31 is settled below. On such a move the test of the 8 and 13-day M/As could take place. They are 42.97 and 42.47. Only a test but the failure to close below the lower of them is a buy again. If the contract ticks higher during the rest of the day it is recommended to be fully long again if the aforementioned 100-day M/A resistance is settled back above. Under this scenario the upside target, the 45.45 range resistance, will be re-instated. The odds of hitting it will jump on a break and close over the 44.17 c/p resistance. The most important level on board today is the 43.31 range.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.