PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
ICE failed to close above the nearest resistance area therefore no buy signal was given. If it weakens further today the test of the short-term daily M/As is deemed a buy. NYMEX rallied to the sellable 13-day M/A resistance and drifted lower. It is now recommended to be flat on this contract and wait for developments. The ICE contract expires next Monday and the NYMEX contract this coming Friday so we are switching to August.
August ICE: The strong resistance area on the August contract ranges from 43.60 to 43.87. The former is yesterday’s high followed by 43.62, the highest print on Monday. We have yet another range resistance at 43.76 then finally the 100-day contract M/A at 43.87. The contract was unable to break above it yesterday and came lower. It might test the area of the daily short and medium-term M/As that are between 42.74 and 42.46. If the developing uptrend is to persist then this support area must hold. A dip to the 13-day at around 42.65 seems to be a buy but no long positions should be held on a close below the 8 and 34-day at around 42.47 and 42.46. In case of a rally profit on these new long positions are to be taken when 43.60 is in sight again. Needless to say that a rally and settlement over 43.87 will put bulls firmly in control of the market and such a close is a buy. The contract is still positive and will remain so whilst over the daily short-term M/As.
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