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ICE has turned positive – NYMEX should fall further

Published Wednesday, June 24th, 2015

ICE failed to close above the nearest resistance area therefore no buy signal was given. If it weakens further today the test of the short-term daily M/As is deemed a buy. NYMEX rallied to the sellable 13-day M/A resistance and drifted lower. It is now recommended to be flat on this contract and wait for developments. The ICE contract expires next Monday and the NYMEX contract this coming Friday so we are switching to August.


August ICE: The strong resistance area on the August contract ranges from 43.60 to 43.87. The former is yesterday’s high followed by 43.62, the highest print on Monday. We have yet another range resistance at 43.76 then finally the 100-day contract M/A at 43.87. The contract was unable to break above it yesterday and came lower. It might test the area of the daily short and medium-term M/As that are between 42.74 and 42.46. If the developing uptrend is to persist then this support area must hold. A dip to the 13-day at around 42.65 seems to be a buy but no long positions should be held on a close below the 8 and 34-day at around 42.47 and 42.46. In case of a rally profit on these new long positions are to be taken when 43.60 is in sight again. Needless to say that a rally and settlement over 43.87 will put bulls firmly in control of the market and such a close is a buy. The contract is still positive and will remain so whilst over the daily short-term M/As.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.