PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
The uptrend is trying to re-assert itself. After Friday’s rally the energy complex retreated somewhat on Monday but a rally yesterday gave us a demonstration that bulls, if anyone, are in control of the market. One thing is sure: it is firmly not recommended to be short at the moment. The reason to say this is that all the daily short-term M/As, with the exception of the 13-day on Heating Oil, and in some cases the 34-day M/As are below the price action and are acting as supports. Only on closes below these areas will bears grow in confidence. These are 60.09/59.44 on WTI with the 34-day at 59.73, 64.78/64.37 on Brent, 192.70/190.89 on Heating Oil, 203.78/201.81 on RBOB with the 34-day at 200.18 and 593.50/589.00 on Gasoil. So, does it make sense to go long after the decent rally since last Thursday? Possibly, but it might not be unreasonable to be a bit more patient with buying. After all, hefty resistances were tested but failed to close above yesterday.
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