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PVM Midday Report 09 June 2015

Published Tuesday, June 9th, 2015


  1. Kurdish oil minister expects main export pipeline capacity to hit 1 mbpd by year-end
  2. Iraq crude production at around 3.8 mbpd; set to rise to 6 mbpd by 2020
  3. Industry sources put Libyan oil output at about 460,000 bpd
  4. Chinese inflation dips to +1.2% in May compared with a year ago


Fundamentals: An Iraqi oil official has revealed that the OPEC member’s current output stands at around 3.8 mbpd and is expected to rise to 6 mbpd by the end of the decade. This comes as the oil minister for the autonomous Kurdish region announced that capacity of its main export pipeline is set to reach 1 mbpd in the next 6-8 months. He also hinted that despite having only received 35% of the funds agreed with Baghdad under an oil export deal, the KRG remains committed to the agreement. Meanwhile, industry sources have put Libya’s oil production at around 460,000 bpd which is consistent with estimates from the state NOC.

Technicals: The contracts are recovering well this morning. They have all moved over the 5 day MAs and this suggests more of a slingshot move higher to the next short term MA. The key to the upside is both holding over the 5s and then wait and see what happens at the next target higher. WTI is over the 5 around 58.76 and the next MA is the 13 around 59.68. Watch he 5 carefully here – WTI is struggling a bit. Brent is over the 5 around 63.10 and the 8/13 day combo around 63.90/95. Heat is over the 5 around 186.79 and has overcome the next hurdle – the c/p and 55 day around 188.21/63. RBOB has held the key 34 day at 201.26 and has moved over the 5 and 13 day around 201.91/202.00 and has moved over the 8 day around 203.32. A move and close over the latter would be bullish both for RBOB and the rest of the contracts. Gasoil is over the 5 around 574.50 and the 8 around 581.50. The 13 is around 584.00. Look for tests of resistance.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.