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PVM Midday Report 16 June 2015

Published Tuesday, June 16th, 2015


  1. Libyan crude production at 432,000 bpd; exports stand at 350, 000 bpd
  2. Indian May oil imports jump 15% on the month
  3. German economic morale dips in June on Greek uncertainties
  4. UK consumer prices rebound 0.1% in May y/y following bout of deflation in April


Fundamentals: The chairman of Libya’s NOC has revealed that output currently stands at 432,000 bpd which is less than the market-consensus of 500,000 bpd, with exports at around 350,000 bpd. Furthermore, he signalled that production is expected to increase by 200,000 bpd in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, resilient oil demand from Asia was highlighted by figures revealing a 15% jump in India’s May crude imports compared with the previous month.

Technicals: The lack of harmony amongst the contracts has persisted with Brent, Heat and Gasoil below all the s/t MAs and RBOB and WTI just below the 5s. WTI has made some headway towards its continuation 5-day at 60.29 and must ensure a close above 59.53 to prevent a bout of weakness. Brent looks subdued and is in danger of dipping below its 100-day at 62.97, a close below which would green-light a move lower to 61.67. Heat has no target lower whilst above 185.44 and needs a m/c above its 8-day MA at 189.36 to give this contract an upwards boost. RBOB remains the contract to watch and has thus far made little impact on initial resistance at 212.23 (5-day), a move over which will signal a re-test of key upside target at 215.31. Gasoil is lacking inspiration as it remains pinned below all its s/t MAs and looks set to lose further value. The lack of harmony makes for erratic price action and the advice remains to be patient and wait for developments.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.