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PVM Midday Report 17 June 2015

Published Wednesday, June 17th, 2015


  1. Planned loadings of Angolan crude oil cargoes set to fall in August to 55 from 58 in July
  2. Greek central bank reveals capital outflows in the seven months to April reached €30 billion
  3. Average UK weekly wages rise 2.7% in the three months to April; jobless rate steady at 5.5%
  4. US mortgage applications index dipped by 5.5% in the week to June 12


Fundamentals: Shipping sources have revealed that planned exports of Angolan crude oil cargoes will number 55 in August which is down from 58 or 1.79 mbpd in the previous month. Meanwhile, the API has predicted a 2.9 million bbl fall in US crude stocks for the week to June 12 in what would be the seventh-straight draw. Conversely, stocks at the Cushing delivery point are seen ending a run of a seven-consecutive weekly draws with forecasts of a 330,000 bbl build.

Technicals: The contracts are surging higher. All of them are now over their short term MAs and looking strong. The run up has been led by RBOB which has moved over the key 13 month MA at 215.61 and whilst above here will be looking for higher numbers which the rest can then follow. WTI is above all the s/t MAs and now runs into range resistance around 61.58/82 where care is advised. A m/c over would green light a leg up to 63.62. Brent is above one 34 day MA but the higher is at 65.78 where caution is advised. It should reach this level. Heat has hit but moved back below the 34 day MAs at 193.87/194.13. It needs to m/c over here to green light a leg higher to 196.31. RBOB has led the charge higher and now has an objective to 218.93 where care is advised. A m/c over would be positive. Gasoil has been halted by the 34 day MAs at 583.50 and 594.50. The contracts are hitting strong resistances – be careful.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.