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PVM Midday Report 18 June 2015

Published Thursday, June 18th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Oil ministers from Russia and Saudi Arabia to discuss possible oil cooperation deal
  2. Kurdistan’s PM claims that it can export its crude oil without approval from Baghdad
  3. IMF head dismisses possibility of extension to Greece’s June 30 debt deadline
  4. UK retail sales enjoy better-than-expected 0.2% rise in May compared with April

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Sources have revealed that the respective oil ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia are planning to meet today to discuss a potential oil cooperation agreement in a possible sign of producer concern at what is expected to be a heavily oversupplied second half of the year. Meanwhile, the head of the autonomous Kurdish region has claimed that it can export its crude oil without approval from Baghdad despite a recently agreed oil-export deal with the Iraqi central government limiting its foreign shipments of oil.

Technicals: The market is reacting back up this morning. All contracts are now back over their short term (s/t) MAs and if they stay this way will be looking for a move back to yesterday’s highs. A move confirmed by a close (m/c) back below the s/t MAs would merely reiterate that we’re stuck in a range. WTI is above all the s/t MAs and should now head towards the 61.80 area. It needs to stay over the 60.45 area – the 5 and 8 day MAs – to ensure this. Brent is back over the 5 and 13 day MA and right on the 8 day around 64.82 and just below the continuation 34 day at 64.94. It needs to move over the latter to make a leg higher to the 34 day at 65.65. Heat is above the s/t MAs and looks like heading towards the 34 day at 193.67/90. RBOB is just above the s/t MAs around 211.20/52 and needs to m/c over 211.52 to take it to the 13 month MA at 215.38. Gasoil is above the s/t MAs but has the 34s as resistance at 593.25/594.00. There’s some heavy resistance around close to the price action. Be careful up here.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.