Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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PVM Midday Report 19 June 2015

Published Friday, June 19th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Saudi crude oil exports dipped slightly in April to 7.737 mbpd from 7.898 mbpd in March
  2. Nigeria lowers its July OSP for Bonny Light and Qua Iboe crude from previous month
  3. Intensifying Greek deposit withdrawals prompts ECB emergency funding request
  4. Russia hints at possible provision of financial aid to Greece

Oil                         

Fundamentals: Figures from Riyadh have revealed that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports eased marginally in April to 7.737 mbpd compared to the 7.898 mbpd recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, a glut of West African crude has prompted Nigeria to trim the July OSP of its Bonny Light and Qua Iboe crude grades from June’s OSPs.

Technicals: The market is struggling this morning. Most contracts have moved back below the short term (s/t) MAs, but the key one to watch is RBOB’s 13 day MA at 208.17. This is critical support – below here and the contracts will move to the lower end of the range. Aug WTI is testing the 34 day at 59.60 and the 55 day at 59.47. A move confirmed by a close (m/c) below the latter would activate weakness down to 58.23. Brent is around the 100 day MA at 63.24. A m/c below here would green light a leg lower to 61.62. Heat is just below the c/p support at 188.21 and then has the 100s at 187.75 and 186.20. RBOB has moved below the key 13 day at 208.17. This must be closed over or it runs lower to 204.98/35. Gasoil looks vulnerable to a move lower to 571.75. The market is struggling. Watch the s/t MAs and in particular RBOB.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.