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PVM Midday Report 30 June 2015

Published Tuesday, June 30th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as biggest supplier of crude oil to China
  2. Libya’s Eastern oil company producing between 250,000 and 290,000 bpd
  3. Iran’s Foreign Minister optimistic of nuclear deal ahead of today’s deadline
  4. Greek finance official confirms €1.6 billion IMF debt repayment will not be made
  5. Eurozone inflation rises 0.2% y/y in June; jobless rate steady at 11.1%

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest supplier of crude oil in May after imports from the former-Soviet country topped 3.9 million tonnes in what was a 20% y/y increase and now accounts for a third of total Chinese crude imports. Libya’s Eastern oil company is said to be producing between 250-290,000 bpd of crude with a tanker scheduled to load 1 million bbls at the port of Hariga later today.

Technicals: The contracts have hit and held over their target levels and we are now witnessing a recovery. WTI is above the key support at 58.23 and looks like heading for the 5 day MA around 59.34. Brent has held the support at 61.52 and has headed for the 5 day MA around 62.96 – this is the first serious hurdle. Heat has held the 50% c/p support at 184.10 and is testing the 5 day around 186.69 at time of writing. The 8 day is around 187.54. RBOB has held the key 55 and 200 day combo at 199.28 and has now moved over the 5 and 8s and should now test the 13 day around 203.74. RBOB may well be giving early warning signals gain so watch it carefully. Gasoil is also back over the 5 and 8s around 572.50 and 573.50 and has he 13 day as resistance around 577.00. The action so far is constructive and some moves and closes over the 5 and 8s would be positive. It would also be accompanied by a positive stochastic. Watch the short term MAs very carefully.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.