PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
The market is continuing to struggle but is holding. Three of the five contracts – WTI, Heat and Gasoil – are above key support. The rest look vulnerable and RBOB had a bad day yesterday, which is not helpful. The key support is at 59.69/61 WTI; 186.67 Heat; and 570.00 Gasoil. RBOB’s key level is at 202.69 (200 day). A move and close (m/c) over 202.69 would point to the market holding, and this would affect the rest. Watch 202.69 carefully – it’s important. WTI is holding key support at 56.69/61 – the 55 and 34 day MAs. This is a critical level. Meanwhile strong resistance is around 60.32 – the combination of the 5, 8, 13 and 34 day MAs. It is rare to have them all clustered at one number and a m/c back over here would be constructive. Brent closed below the important 100 day MA at 63.33 and whilst below here has a good chance of heading lower to 61.62, a 50% c/p. This is unlikely to occur if the rest hold support. A m/c back over 63.33 would negate the weakness and suggest that this contract is attempting to hold.
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