PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
The technical picture has not changed much from yesterday and the contracts remain precarious and in a dangerous condition. Yesterday’s attempt to move higher pretty much failed at the short term (s/t) MAs. The contracts, including RBOB, are now below them all, but re-testing the 5s. The stochastics are pointing south and, in short, the key technical indicators are negative. However all contracts have completed a price cycle and we now need moves confirmed by closes (m/c) below the key supports – identified by contract later – to green light the next leg south. RBOB will give the guidance and it’s critical levels are very clear and close. The pivotal support is at 201.20 (34 day MA) and the resistance around 201.47/56 (5 day and b/b pivot) – watch these two levels. A m/c below the 201.20 level points to further weakness and over 201.47 to be holding with upside potential. Watch RBOB! WTI is holding over the key 55 day MA at 57.67 and c/p at 57.45. A m/c below 57.45 would green light a leg down to 56.19 (continuation 55 day MA). Key initial resistance is at the 5 day around 58.67, followed by the 13 day around 59.13 and 8 day round 59.39. A m/c even over the lowest – the 5 day – would point to trying to hold.
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