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ICE has turned positive – NYMEX is firmly in the range

Published Thursday, July 2nd, 2015

August ICE: To be consistent there is now nothing wrong with being long. To begin with, the daily slow stochastics is firmly positive. Secondly, all the daily short-term M/As were settled above. They are between 42.44 and 42.24. Thirdly, the 34-day M/A at around 42.34 was also below last night’s settlement level. We shall see today whether the strength of Tuesday and Wednesday was genuine or a bull trap but as things stand now the test of the 43.60/62 range resistance is expected. These are the daily highs on the August contract on June 22 and 23 and this is where longs are advised to take profit. These long positions should then be put back on a close above 43.79 (the 100-day contract M/A) and 43.80 (the daily high on June 10). In case of a bull trap the most obvious thing to do to protect existing long positions is to go flat if the lowest of the daily short-term M/As, the 5-day is closed below. In that case the 41.56/40 range support area is expected to be in sight in the near future but only a close below the lowest of them is considered bearish.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.