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ICE hit resistance – NYMEX is still bearish

Published Thursday, July 9th, 2015

The contracts went in different directions yesterday. ICE tried its best to test resistances where longs probably took profit whilst NYMEX drifted lower, closed below the next set of supports and still has a clear objective on the downside. This target could easily be achieved today, especially if the weekly EIA stats provide some downside support.


August ICE: We identified the 43.50/64 area yesterday as the level to take profit on long positions. The contract rallied to 43.41 before it turned lower. If it was high enough to put some money in the bank, great, if not, then even greater as this morning the contract has jumped as high as 43.56. By any means, longs should be flat by now and they are advised to go long again on a close over the 43.80 range resistance. On such a close a jump up to the 61.8% retracement level of the April-May downtrend at 44.31 is expected with the potential to go to 46.08, a range resistance and the daily high on the August contract at the beginning of April. Intra-day dips to the short-term daily M/A supports that are between 43.06 and 42.73 are NOT a buy anymore but it might be an idea to go long on the close if the lowest of them is tested and NOT closed below. Under the current circumstance selling short is only advised on a close below the 34-day contract M/A that is currently at 42.48.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.