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ICE is turning bearish whilst NYMEX is trying to hold

Published Friday, July 17th, 2015

August ICE: We said in yesterday’s report that a close below the 13-day M/A (presently at 43.23) is a half-hearted sell and should the 34-day contract M/A (42.78) be closed below it will be recommended to sell fully short. None of these took place but the contract is seemingly breaking down this morning and is below the 13-day but still above the 34-day. We know and we accept that closing prices are the most important ones from the technical perspective but the adventurous ones with itchy fingers might want to hit the sell button and start building up short positions over the course of the day. Of course, a close above the 13-day would mean that no short positions should be held and going long is still only recommended if 44.00 is below tonight’s close. The downside seems straightforward. There is nothing wrong with building up short positions as the contract is drifting lower and a close below 42.78 will suggest that the 41.56/40 downside objective will be validated and likely be tested early next week. A close below the short-term weekly M/As that are between 43.01 and 42.60 would strengthen the bears’ case.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.