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ICE should go higher – Further strength on NYMEX

Published Tuesday, July 14th, 2015

ICE did not live up to its bullish expectations but did not disappoint existing longs either. It is still more on the positive side and resistances are anticipated to come under pressure with its daily short-term M/As all below the current price action and its daily slow stochastichs still positive. NYMEX forced shorts to liquidate but the strong close was very close to significant resistances so acquiring length last night seems to be a risky business. Nevertheless, the shortest one should be is flat.


August ICE: Last week’s rally has not run out of steam despite the contract losing a little bit of value yesterday. It will help the longs’ case if the weekly highs of 43.95/44.000 were settled above tonight. In that case yesterday’s view will remain intact. That is that bulls are recommended to take profit on part of their positions on a test of the 100-day continuation M/A which is currently at 44.57. These long positions then should be put back on if this resistance is closed above as on such a move it is not unreasonable to expect a big jump up to the 46.08 range resistance, the daily high on the August contract on April 2. This is where longs should go flat. It was suggested to protect existing long positions on a break and close below the 5-day M/A (43.67) yesterday. This view is altered slightly as only half of any long positions should be closed out on such a move and close whilst the same should be done with the other half on a break and close below the 8-day. The latter is currently 43.39. As things stand now the chances are on further strength. This view will be upheld unless the 8-day M/A is settled below.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.