Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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ICE should go lower and NYMEX higher

Published Wednesday, July 22nd, 2015

With the ICE contract settling unchanged it remains slightly negative. NYMEX did its best to try and provide us with a buy signal but missed it by 3-4 points. Nevertheless, it has started to look healthy and it might be an idea to start acquiring some length over the course of the day in case resistances are broken over on a sustained basis.

 

August ICE: There is still nothing wrong with being somewhat short in this contract but we never had the chance yesterday to put on the full position. The area of the 34-day M/As was flirted with but not closed below. These supports are 42.95 and 42.84 and are being put under renewed pressure at the time of writing. Should they be settled below it is advised to go fully short and expect the test of the 41.56/40 range support area where taking profit is recommended. These are the contract lows on June 18 and May 27. These positions then ought to be re-established if 41.30/29 are settled below. The latter two are the continuation lows on May 5 and 26. In case the contract rallies shorts are advised to protect their positions on a close over the 8 and 100-day M/As at 43.24/37 in which case the test of the 43.85/44.00 resistance is expected to take place. A close over the highest of them is a buy. This is the more unlikely scenario. At the moment the odds are on a close below the 34-day M/A supports.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.