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Mildly bearish ICE and neutral NYMEX

Published Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

It was advised to run a reduced short position on the ICE contract and to be flat or just a little bit long on NYMEX. As it turns out ICE closed higher and NYMEX lower yesterday. ICE did not settle above resistances so running limited long positions is not unreasonable. The NYMEX contract, on the other hand, closed below supports so it would only make sense to be flat and wait for developments.

 

August ICE: The 34-day M/A supports at 42.94/82 were tested, briefly broken but not closed below. It was not possible to go fully short. Should they be above tonight’s settlement level it will be advised to sell short. On such a move the 41.56/40 range support will be green-lighted as the next target on the downside. Those who were running some short positions did probably not cover either as the 8 and 100-day M/As, currently at 43.38 and 43.40 were not penetrated and the 13-day M/A presently at 43.27 was not closed above. From this respect the advice from yesterday remains the same: cut losses if the 8 and 100-day M/As are broken over on a sustained basis or if the 13-day M/A is settled over. Going long is still advised on a conclusive close above the 44.00 weekly high and range resistance. Such a move would green-light the next objective on the upside, the 46.08 range resistance, the daily high on the August contract on April 2.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.