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PVM Midday Report 02 July 2015

Published Thursday, July 2nd, 2015


  1. Russian crude oil output steady at post-Soviet high of 10.71 mbpd in June
  2. Indian imports of Iranian crude jump 70% y/y in June; down 23% y/y over Jan-June period
  3. Greek FM Yanis Varoufakis vows to resign if voters accept bailout at Sunday’s referendum
  4. Final June UK construction PMI leaps to 58.1 from 55.9 in previous month
  5. ECB announces expansion of QE programme to include certain corporate bond issuers


Fundamentals: Russian crude oil production has held firm at a post-Soviet peak of 10.71 mbpd in June for the fourth month in a row. Indian imports of Iranian crude surged in June to 283,900 bpd, a 70% increase from the same period a year ago, although they have shrunk by 23% y/y during the first six months of 2015.

Technicals: The contracts have rediscovered their poise after holding key supports at last night’s close and look to be in resistance-testing mode. WTI has an objective higher at 57.65, a m/c above which will have it testing its 5-day MA at 58.28. Brent and Heat are at their 5-day MAs around 62.69 and 186.01 and now have a target to 63.08 and 187.16. RBOB is yet again the contract to watch and looks encouraging after surging past its 13-day MA at 203.23 and should drag the whole complex higher if on a close over its 55-day MA at 203.36. Gasoil has held the 5 but failed to make inroads on the 8 day at 573.50. The contracts have made a lurch higher towards the s/t MA but care is advised and m/cs above the 5s will be needed to maintain any upside potential. Look for a solid close over 203.36 (55-day) on RBOB to give the rest an upwards boost.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.