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PVM Midday Report 09 July 2015

Published Thursday, July 9th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Russian Foreign Minister claims final Iranian nuclear agreement within reach
  2. Iran cuts August Iranian Light crude OSP to Asian buyers by 10cts/bbl from July
  3. Mexican oil official sees oil output at around 2.26 mbpd for the rest of the year and in 2016
  4. German exports surge by +1.7% in May on the month; ahead of predicted fall of -0.8%
  5. Greek deflation deepens in June to -2.2% y/y; April jobless rate marginally down at 25.6%

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Russia’s Foreign Minister has claimed that the so-far elusive final agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme is drawing close as a Western official denounces reports that talks could be extended to Monday. Staying with Iran, the OPEC member has lowered the August OSP of its Iranian Light crude oil to Asian buyers by 10cts/bbl from the previous month. Meanwhile, a Mexican oil official has signalled that its oil output is expected to average around 2.26 mbpd for the rest of 2015 and next year, slightly down on the year-to-date average of 2.3 mbpd.

Technicals: The complex has moved in unison to the upside led by RBOB which yesterday closed above its 5 and 8-day MA and is around the 13-day at 200.50. A close above the latter should have it test the 34-day at 201.54 and take the rest of the contracts upwards with it. Brent, Heat and Aug’ Gasoil have moved over initial resistance at the 5-day MA and closes above will give them objectives higher to 59.55 Brent; 178.64 Heat and 550.50 Aug’ Gasoil. WTI has made headway but continues to look vulnerable below 53.28. RBOB has led the contracts higher but closes above the 5s are now needed on the rest to maintain the upward momentum in which case the complex, bar RBOB, will turn from negative to neutral.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.