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PVM Midday Report 14 July 2015

Published Tuesday, July 14th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Iran and world powers reach landmark nuclear deal
  2. Iranian oil official hints at imminent return to oil market with “maximum capacity”
  3. Greek energy minister calls for bailout deal to be cancelled
  4. Eurozone industrial production slips 0.4% in May from the previous month
  5. UK annual inflation rate eases back to zero in June; Mark Carney hints at looming rate rise

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Oil markets are digesting the long-awaited Iranian nuclear agreement which was announced this morning after more than 20 months of negotiations. With a number of economic and financial sanctions soon to be lifted, attention will turn to the fallout on the oil supply/demand balance where an initial Reuters poll has forecast an increase of up to 500,000 bpd in Iran’s oil exports by the year-end. Moreover, a senior Iranian oil official has hinted that it will ramp up efforts to return to the oil export market with maximum capacity and aims to restore its pre-sanction market share to Europe of 42-43%.

Technicals: The contracts remain in trouble and whilst below the 5s have targets lower to 50.58 WTI; 55.10 Brent; 168.63 Heat; RBOB 191.80 and 515.75 Gasoil. Only RBOB has moved below its target but a m/c below it should have it testing 189.55 and bring the rest of the complex lower. Rallies to either the 5s or the 8s are selling opportunities as the downtrend reasserts itself. The contracts are struggling and will likely head lower – it is not advised to be long.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.