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PVM Midday Report 16 July 2015

Published Thursday, July 16th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Angolan crude oil exports planned at 1.76 mbpd in September, little changed from August
  2. Britain’s North Sea Buzzard oil field in fresh shutdown; expected to restart in next 24hrs
  3. Eurozone annual inflation rate eases to +0.2% in June from +0.3% in previous month
  4. EU officials reportedly agree on €7 billion Greek short-term loan
  5. ECB keeps monetary policy on hold; ELA to Greek banks reportedly kept unchanged

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Exports of Angolan crude oil in September are expected to total 55 cargoes or approximately 1.76 mbpd which is largely unchanged from the 1.74 mbpd planned in August. Britain’s 170-180,000 bpd North Sea Buzzard oil field has been taken offline following problems on Wednesday evening but is expected to come back online later today or on Friday. Meanwhile, exports of ultra-low sulphur from Saudi Arabia loading in late-July and early-August are seen rising after its newest 400,000 bpd Yanbu refinery was seen reaching peak capacity in the last couple of weeks.

Technicals: The contracts have made a tentative move higher but remain someway off tough resistances. WTI and Sep’ Brent are both below their 5 and 8-day MAs at 52.28/27 and 58.16/05 respectively and should these be above tonight’s close will likely turn lower and test their range supports at 50.58 and 55.60. Heat has an objective higher to the 5-day MA at 170.58 but is struggling and could well fall down to the daily low on the August contract on July 7 at 167.21. RBOB has remained below its previously key support at 191.83 (100-day MA) and a conclusive move and close above this level is needed to give the upward move a boost. Gasoil looks weak and still has a target lower to 515.75. The contracts have held important supports but the trend remains down unless the complex can manage a m/c over the 5 and 8-day MAs.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.