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PVM Midday Report 21 July 2015

Published Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

Headlines

  1. Chinese imports of Iranian crude reach two-month peak in June at 671,800 bpd
  2. Kuwaiti oil minister counting on improving global growth prospects to boost oil prices
  3. China’s exports of diesel in August to hit highest since 1999 at 900,000 tonnes
  4. US Secretary of State disturbed by belligerent comments from Iran’s Supreme Leader
  5. UK budget deficit narrows in June by 8.3% y/y to £9.4 billion on record tax receipts

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Chinese imports of Iranian crude climbed to a two-month high in June of 671,800 bpd which was a 26.5% jump from the same period a year ago while imports from Saudi Arabia surged by 35.8% to 1.29 mbpd on its way to reclaiming the top supplier spot from Russia. Staying with China, its exports of diesel in August are set to reach about 900,000 tonnes which would be the most since 1999 as domestic refiners ramp up crude runs and product inventories reach capacity. Meanwhile, Kuwait’s oil minister has predicted that improving global growth prospects will help boost oil prices and maintained the OPEC member’s target of raising crude oil output to 4 mbpd by 2020.

Technicals: The contracts have mostly treaded water this morning with the exception of RBOB whose overdue move to the downside has taken place. RBOB has dipped to its 5-day MA around at 190.86 and a close below it would have testing its 200-day continuation M/A at 185.92 and cause the others to lose value. The rest remain someway below their 8-day M/As and as a result have objectives lower to 49.90/69 Sep’ WTI; 55.60 Brent; 161.36 Heat and 504.50/25 Gasoil. The outlook remains more on the bearish side with only a close above 195.10 on RBOB and the 8s on the rest sparing them from further weakness.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.