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Test of supports on ICE and resistance on NYMEX

Published Thursday, July 23rd, 2015

The ICE contract was exhibiting bearish signs 24 hours ago whilst NYMEX Natgas looked relatively healthy. Both of them lived up to expectations and by the close ICE settled below supports giving us a sell signal whilst NYMEX went the opposite direction by closing over resistance.

 

August ICE: We started yesterday with being partially short and ended being fully short. The 34-day M/As were closed below. They are currently at 42.80/92. The performance green-lighted the nearest target on the downside. It is the 41.56/40 range support, the daily lows on the August contract on June 18 and May 27. The contract has fallen as low as 41.84 this morning, probably not close enough for shorts to take profit. When this level is in sight it is advised that shorts cover. They should then re-instate their positions if 41.29 is settled below. The latter is another range support and the daily continuation low on May 26. Protecting short positions appears relatively straightforward. On a break over the highest of the 34-day M/As it would make sense to get rid of part of any existing short positions and going flat is the way forward if 42.92 is firmly settled over.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.