Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Be flat on ICE and long on NYMEX

Published Tuesday, August 11th, 2015

Yesterday morning it looked as though we were going to get a sell signal on ICE and a buy signal on NYMEX. By the end of the trading session we were half right as ICE gradually got stronger over the course of the day and closed back over crucial support levels. Whilst the risk is still skewed to the downside some more patience is needed regarding selling short in this contract. NYMEX, on the other hand, managed to hold on to early gains, resistances were below last night’s settlement and a genuine buy signal was provided.

September ICE: The support area in question is the 40.45/35 level, a range support and the 61.8% correction point of the 2009-2013 uptrend. It was broken but not closed below. Should it be settled below only then it will be recommended to sell short for a dump down to the 200-month M/A which is at 38.79 at the moment. Not only was the aforementioned support not closed below but this morning the contract is making further advances as follow-through buying from yesterday is pushing the price above the 5-day M/A (40.83) and close to the 8-day M/A (41.18). This strength is currently being viewed as a correction in an otherwise down trending market for two reasons. The first one is that the continuation lows of May 5 and May 26 are above the market. They are at 41.29/30. The second one is that the 13-day M/A at around 41.63 is acting as a resistance.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.