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Probably lower on ICE. Watch the 100-day M/A on NYMEX.

Published Wednesday, August 5th, 2015

We were just a few points away on both contracts from getting a fresh signal – sell signal on ICE and buy signal on NYMEX. The ICE contract is ticking lower this morning so it might be worth shorting the contract and it is recommended to be patient on NYMEX and only start going long in case of another good performance today.


September ICE: It was a question of 3 points not to get a sell signal last night as the contract settled at 41.31 with the crucial support at 41.30/29. The market has opened with a huge downside gap this morning (it is printing 40.70 at the time of writing) so selling short is not unreasonable. Bears will go fully short on a close below the 41.29/30 level but should the contract rally for whatever reason it is strongly advised to take whatever loss there is and go flat. Otherwise taking profit on short positions is logical at the 40.35 c/p support. This is the 61.8% retracement level of the 2009-2013 uptrend and those short positions ought to be re-instated if closed below. In that case the test of the 200-month M/A at 38.79 will be expected. To cut a long story short the contract is bearish and the test of the 40.35 support should take place and a close below this area will keep bears firmly in control.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.