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PVM Midday Report 11 August 2015

Published Tuesday, August 11th, 2015

Headlines

  1. OPEC leaves 2016 oil demand growth estimate unchanged at 1.34 mbpd
  2. Secondary sources see OPEC oil output up 100,000 bpd in July at 31.51 mbpd
  3. Saudi Arabia reveals its crude production dipped 200,000 bpd in July to 10.36 mbpd
  4. Iranian oil official claims its crude output levels will not rise until sanctions lifted
  5. China’s central bank devalues yuan by most in over two decades

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: OPEC has signalled resilient non-OPEC oil supply for the rest of the year in its latest monthly report after it raised its 2015 global oil demand growth by 90,000 bpd whilst leaving the expected call on its crude unchanged. Next year’s oil demand growth was kept at 1.34 mbpd with the 2016 demand estimate for its oil increased by 50,000 bpd to 30.12 mbpd. Secondary sources put the cartel’s crude output at 31.51 mpbd in July, up 100,000 bpd from June, while Saudi Arabia revealed that its oil production dipped in July to 10.36 mpbd from 10.56 mbpd in June. Staying with OPEC, an Iranian oil official has revealed that its oil production levels will not rise until international sanctions are removed.

Technicals: The market is giving back some of yesterday’s gains. The short term (s/t) MAs need to be watched very carefully now. WTI has slid below the 5 around 44.48 and if it closed below there tonight would be eyeing up lower numbers. Brent has failed to stay above the 8 day around 49.95 and is just holding the 5 day around 49.58. Watch these two MAs carefully. Heat has failed to stay over the critical 13 day around 157.93 but is above the 5 and 8s around 155.93/79. RBOB has failed at 13, around 171.24 and has slid below the 8 around 168.01. It is still above the 5 around 166.17. Gasoil has failed at the 13, around 486.00 and is now near the 8 day around 477.75. The stochastics remain positive. This is a correction back, but would only turn nasty if the 5 and 8s are closed below on other than WTI.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.