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Short or flat on ICE and flat on NYMEX

Published Thursday, August 6th, 2015

The ICE contract probably got close enough to its nearest important support for shorts to take profit before rallying a bit and closing above it. On the other hand, as encouraging as NYMEX looked in the early part of the day, it failed to give us a buy signal and closed below crucial resistances. It is, therefore, recommended to be flat on this contract.

 

September ICE: It was recommended yesterday morning to start selling short during the day for further weakness down to the long-term monthly correction point of 40.35. With a little bit of goodwill it can be said that this level was tested so hopefully there was an opportunity for shorts to bank a small profit. If not, it is not unreasonable to stay short as no resistances were closed above and try to cover positions on a repeated test of the 40.35 level. In the unlikely event of a rally, existing short positions are to be protected on a rally and close above the 41.40 range resistance. Should the contract weaken further as expected selling short seems attractive on a close below 40.35 in which case the 200-month M/A at around 38.79 will be green-lighted as the nearest technical objective on the downside.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.