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Upside potential but watch the 13 day MAs for guidance. Early days yet.

Published Thursday, August 13th, 2015

Introduction. RBOB led the move higher yesterday when it scythed through and over the 13 day MA. Heat and Gasoil joined in enthusiastically but, although stronger, the crudes were reluctant. The contracts are not harmonious yet. RBOB is the only contract with a target higher to the continuation gap at 178.09 and were the rest not so steady WTI would have an objective south to the lows at 42.03. Heat and RBOB both closed over their short term (s/t) MAs. Oct’ Brent and Gasoil above the 5 and 8s (Brent only just closing 3c over the 8); and WTI is below them all. This lack of harmony is impeding an otherwise developing constructive view, which is held whilst the majority of the contracts are above the 13 day MAs. These MAs are the pivot – above and the contracts are looking for higher numbers, below and this rally/recovery has failed and the down trend kicks back in. In short, watch the 13 day MAs!

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Posted by Robin Bieber