Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Watch RBOB and the s/t MAs

Published Wednesday, August 12th, 2015

Introduction. The trend proved stronger than the correction, which almost always proves to be the case – otherwise it wouldn’t be called a trend. All the contracts failed yesterday at one or other of the short term MAs – WTI at the 8 and subsequently dumped; Brent neared the 13 and collapsed; Heat and Gasoil breached the 13, failed, then headed south; and RBOB the 13. Keep watching the MAs and in particular watch RBOB at the 13 day MA around 170.71. Whilst the rest experienced price carnage yesterday RBOB only lost 3 points and closed over the 5 and 8 day MAs. If it moves and closes (m/c) over the 13 around 170.71 there is a good chance that this is an early warning signal – something RBOB has a solid reputation for giving – and we may well see the rest try to hold and rally. As such 170.71 is the most important resistance on the board today. In the meantime, the trend remains down and although there are no targets lower yet, treat rallies with scepticism unless RBOB is over 170.71. WTI failed at the 8 day MA yesterday and collapsed to m/c below the 5 too. This gives it a very good chance of heading back to the lows at 42.03. It is not a target because none of the other contracts have breached all their s/t MAs, and harmony is required. A m/c below 42.03 would green light an objective to 39.44. Resistance is at the 5 day around 43.89 and the 8 day around 44.44.

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Posted by Robin Bieber