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Watch the 8 and 13 day MAs. They hold all the answers.

Published Tuesday, August 11th, 2015

Introduction. It’s time to be very careful. There have been plenty of promising rallies over the past few months, all of which sucked in the bottom pickers and all ended in tears. This may be the exception, but a lot more work is needed. Suffice to say that at the moment there are no further targets south and it’s advised to be flat and wait. The key to the next leg lies with the assorted short term (s/t) MAs. By last night’s close only Heat had closed over all the s/t MAs, and it must now stay over the 13 around 158.00. Gasoil was similar but just below the 13 around 486.00. The rest all closed above the 5 and at the 8s, but now need moves confirmed by closes over at least the 8 to suggest more upside credibility. WTI has, overnight, slipped back below the 5. Watch the s/t MAs carefully – the upside is limited unless these can be safely navigated over. WTI is lagging and uncomfortable. It just managed to m/c over the 5 day by 8c last night – not very impressive. It has slid back below the 5, today around 44.65, overnight. Whilst it has no target lower it would re-acquire one on poor performances by the rest of the contracts, i.e. m/cs back below the s/t MAs. The 8 day is around 45.16 and will be a hurdle on any rally. A m/c over here would be promising. Watch the 5 day.

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Posted by Robin Bieber