Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Watch the s/t MAs. They hold the clues.

Published Friday, August 14th, 2015

Introduction. The contracts lack harmony and are in a very dangerous condition. Yesterday WTI should have had a target lower to 42.03 – but didn’t – and RBOB did have an objective higher to 178.09 – WTI hit 42.03 and RBOB missed 178.09. The s/t MAs were a good guide yesterday and as soon as one or two of them started to be breached the writing was on the wall for a failure. However, it did not look that way this time yesterday morning. The lack of harmony is manifested by the current action around the short term (s/t) MAs. WTI and Brent are both below them all; Heat is above the 8 but below the 5 and 13; Gasoil above the 5 and 8 but below the 13 and RBOB closed last night above them all, but the overnight action has it just below the 5 and still above the 8 and 13. The lack of harmony inhibits a confident view and encourages very erratic action and volatility. Suffice to say that it’s dangerous getting too bearish with RBOB holding above most of the s/t MAs and too bullish with the crudes below all the s/t MAs.

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Posted by Robin Bieber