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ICE is turning bearish and NYMEX bullish

Published Tuesday, September 15th, 2015

It is not conclusive yet but if we closed where we are at the time of writing the ICE contract would give a sell signal whilst NYMEX would be very close to providing us with a “go long” sign. The price action this morning also means that those who were running long ICE positions in the hope of the 100-day M/A being tested should now be flat and wait for events to unfold. Equally, no positions are to be held on NYMEX currently. This, however, could easily change by the close.

October ICE: This contract shied away from the 100-day M/A therefore longs were unfortunately unable to realise profit on their positions. The market opened below the 13-day M/A this morning so it is highly recommended to get rid of long positions. The price action of yesterday and this morning simplified the technical picture. It is advised to sell short in case the aforementioned 13-day M/A at around 41.27 is settled below. If this happens then the contract lows of August at 39.50 and 39.40 should be targeted. If the area of the short and medium-term daily M/As between 41.27 and 41.40 are settled over then this morning’s weakness will have bears in a trap and we should re-visit the 100-day continuation M/A at 42.00. A close over the latter is a definite buy as on such a move the 61.8% retracement level of the July-August sell-off at 43.11 and the gap on the October contract on July 31 at 43.30 will be expected to be tested in the not so distant future. The contract is trying to send out bearish vibes. Be flat

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.