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PVM Midday Report 03 September 2015

Published Thursday, September 3rd, 2015

Headlines

  1. Kurdistan crude oil exports down 44,000 bpd in August due to repeated pipeline attacks
  2. Venezuela’s Maduro approaches President Putin with measures to support oil prices
  3. Gauge of Eurozone private sector business activity climbs to four-year high in August
  4. Euro-area retail sales grow 0.4% in July on the month; misses expectations of +7%

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro has reportedly approached his Russian counterpart at a meeting in Beijing with an offer to discuss measures aimed at stabilising oil markets and prices. Repeated attacks on the main crude oil pipeline in the Kurdistan region has caused oil exports from northern Iraq to dip in August by around 44,000 bpd compared with July to an average of 472,832 bpd.

Technicals: The constructive action yesterday should result in firmer closes tonight. However, the action is likely to continue erratic and nervous. Support has held and the odds are that the contracts try to push a bit higher. The key is the 34 day MAs – moves confirmed by closes (m/c) over these would make a slingshot (s/s) move to the formidable c/p resistances very likely. The key 34s are at 45.21 WTI; 50.53 Brent; 157.91 Heat; and 477.50 Gasoil. RBOB is miles away from the 34 and needs to hold over the 5 day around 143.08. M/cs over these levels would green light the next leg up to the c/ps at 47.24 then 48.06 WTI; 52.48 then 53.48 Brent; 163.53 then 165.88 Heat; 148.38 RBOB; and 500.00 then 502.00 Gasoil. It is not advised to be short whilst a lot of the action is over the 34s.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.