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PVM Midday Report 04 September 2015

Published Friday, September 4th, 2015


  1. Iranian crude oil exports to India slip to 5-month low of 198,800 bpd in August
  2. Barclays trims 2016 average Brent and WTI price projections to $63/bbl & $59/bbl
  3. Russian Energy Minister claims $50-70/bbl to be a fair oil price
  4. German factory orders in bigger-than-expected fall of 1.4% in July from June


Fundamentals: Indian imports of Iranian crude oil plunged by 27% in August from the same period a year ago to a five-month low of 198,800 bpd ahead of planned refinery shutdowns. Commerzbank has trimmed its Brent price projections which it now sees at $55/bbl by the end of the year and $65/bbl at the end of 2016. Barclays was quick to follow suit after it cut its 2016 average Brent and WTI price forecasts by $5/bbl to $63/bbl and $59/bbl respectively. Meanwhile, Russia’s Energy Minister has signalled that he believes $50-70/bbl to be a fair oil price and cautioned that the oversupplied nature of the oil market will continue throughout the rest of this year.

Technicals: The market is pausing for breath after a turbulent week. In general terms the 5 day MA are resistance and need moves confirmed by close (m/c) above them to green light a leg back to the c/p resistances. These c/p resistances are strong and have pretty much contained every rally. They are at 47.24 and 48.06 WTI; 52.70 and 53.48 Brent; 163.53 and 165.88 Heat; 148.38 RBOB; and 500.00 and 502.00 Gasoil. The higher of these is the more important and dangerous. The 5 day MAs which are pivots today are around 46.80 WTI; 51.06 Brent; 162.45 Heat; 143/60 RBOB; and 484.25 Gasoil. The support in the form of the 8 and 13 day MAs is likely to hold.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.