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PVM Midday Report 09 September 2015

Published Wednesday, September 9th, 2015


  1. Saudi crude oil output dips by 100,000 bpd in August to 10.26 mbpd
  2. South Africa signals readiness to fully resume Iranian crude oil imports
  3. Reuters reports that Shell abandons its Westward Ho pipeline project
  4. UK industrial production slips by 0.4% for second consecutive month in July


Fundamentals: Industry sources have claimed that Saudi Arabia crude oil production eased a touch in August to 10.26 mbpd which is down by 100,000 bpd on the previous month. Iran’s Super Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has claimed that negotiations with the US on other issues bar the nuclear issue will not take place. Staying with Iran, a South African government official has revealed that it is ready to fully resume oil imports from Tehran, thought to have been previously around 380,000 bpd, once western sanctions against the OPEC member are lifted.

Technicals: The contracts have dipped this morning but the key 13-day MAs have not been tested and downside potential therefore remains limited. They are around 43.80 WTI; 48.32 Brent; 154.53 Heat; 137.95 RBOB and 470.50 Oct’ Gasoil. There are no targets lower until these aforementioned levels are conclusively closed below. A prolonged failure to move below the 13s would point to a recovery to the 5 and 8s at 46.09/28 WTI; 49.30/50.09 Brent; 159.92/160.30 Heat; 141.50/145.41 RBOB and 486.25/485.75 Oct’ Gasoil. There are no targets either way at the moment but this will change if the 5 and 8-day M/As are settled over or the 13-day M/As are closed below. The advice is to be patient and wait for the next leg to be clear.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.