Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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The market is getting increasingly range-bound

Published Monday, September 21st, 2015

Introduction. Wednesday’s stats-triggered rally was followed by some weakness on Thursday. This sell-off intensified on Friday with all the contract losing significant value and falling back to the lows of Tuesday. The week ended on a pessimistic note although crucial support have not been settled below therefore no sell signals were given. This morning we are experiencing some kind of upside retracement that indicates that there are no targets either way at the moment. As a matter of fact the energy complex seems undecided from the technical perspective. Under these circumstances it is best to identify supports/resistances below/above which it makes technical sense to go short/long.

WTI: The recent lows on the November contract which will become the front-month tomorrow after the close are at 44.09/43.99. If they were settled below the 61.8% retracement level of the August rally at 42.91 would surely to be tested with the possibility to fall as low as the August low of 38.51. The daily short-term M/As that are between 45.79 and 46.06 are acting as resistances and on a break and close above them a jump to Thursday’s high of 48.07 is expected to take place. A close over the latter could easily push the contract up to the August high of 50.04.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.