Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Traps all over the place

Published Thursday, September 17th, 2015

We were almost led to believe that NYMEX Natgas would give us a buy signal on Tuesday only to realise at the end of the day that it was not going to happen. The very same day we had a genuine sell signal, or at least what I thought was a genuine one, on the ICE contract only to find out 24 hours later that it was a trap. To cut a long story short, both contracts are rather undecided, uncertain and range-bound so the most bullish or bearish one should be is flat and only act if some kind of break-out takes place.

October ICE: After the short and medium-term M/As were closed below on Tuesday this contract rallied and closed straight back above them yesterday. These M/As are between 41.36 and 41.26. Yesterday’s performance showed us two things. The first one is that the M/As are losing relevance. The second one is that contract is now range-bound from the technical point of view. It is therefore recommended to go long on a close above the upper and or short on a close below the lower end. The former is the 100-day continuation M/A at 41.96. On a close above it the next target is the c/p at 43.11 and the gap at 43.30.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.