Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Watch the 13s. They hold the answer to the next leg.

Published Thursday, September 17th, 2015

Introduction. The contracts have recovered well. The key c/ps held. There are, at the moment, no targets lower. We would need moves confirmed by closes (m/c) below the lowest c/ps, currently some way below the market, for valid objectives lower.  It’s time for a brief technical audit – last night only WTI m/cd above all the s/t MAs and is now at the 55 day (today at 47.11). The rest, less Heat, m/cd over the 5 and 8s but below the 13. Heat was above the 5 but below the 8 and 13. The stochastics are positive on all but Heat. There is more work to do before one can turn bullish. The 5 day gap (the difference between the current price and the 5 day MA) is too wide – $1.68 on WTI and $1.08 on Brent. This is not sustainable. Brent is just tolerable, but WTI is too large.  Keep this rally in perspective – the contracts are back to where they were just prior to Goldman’s $20 headline. A promising start has been made – support has held etc… but all contracts, bar WTI, are still at or below the 13 day MAs (and WTI has got to negotiate the 55) and for this promise to turn into anything more significant we need to be over the 13s.  Watch the 13 day MAs!

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Posted by Robin Bieber