Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

Follow us

We are firmly back in the range

Published Thursday, September 24th, 2015

Introduction. It was said in yesterday’s report the price action around the 34-day M/A on RBOB would decide whether bullish price expectations were justified. We can safely conclude 24 hours later that they were not. The whole energy complex looked promising up until the release of the weekly EIA statistics and 30 minutes after that but then massive long liquidation set in which ended in tears as far as bulls are concerned. Yesterday’s price action showed that any bullish forecast is misplaced, the market is lacking conviction to commit itself in either direction and the contracts are bound by their ranges. These ranges have been established over the last 2-3 weeks. The best an analyst can do under these circumstances is to define these ranges and advise to sell short on a close below the lower end or go long on a close above the upper end of them.

WTI: an eventual close below the daily lows on the November contract on September 2 & 10 at 43.89/99 is bearish and on such a move the contract should fall to 42.91, the 61.8% c/p of the August-September uptrend and then to the recent low at 38.51. The upper end is the high of last Thursday at 48.07. Should it be settled above we are probably off to test the end-August high at 50.04.

to read the rest of the report, please click here

Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.