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Downside pressure on ICE. NYMEX is constructive.

Published Tuesday, October 13th, 2015

The headline yesterday said that ICE was trying to turn bearish and NYMEX bullish. By the end of the session the former did turn bearish and the latter positive. Based on yesterday’s performances there is nothing wrong with running short positions on ICE and being long on NYMEX.


November ICE: All the daily short-term M/As and the 100-day continuation M/A were closed below yesterday. They are between 41.58 and 41.68. The daily slow stochastics is negative. Yesterday’s settlement provided us with a genuine and valid sell signal. If you decided to short the contract you are recommended to protect the position on a break and close above the 100-day continuation M/A currently at 41.68. In case of further weakness profit should be taken if or when the continuation gap on September 29 at 40.45 is filled. Should it be settled below re-instating short positions is the way forward and in that case the range support, the continuation low on September 22 at 39.46 will become the next objective on the downside. The contract closed below important supports therefore it has turned bearish. This view will be maintained as long as the short-term daily and the 100-day continuation M/As are acting as resistances. Expect support to be under pressure.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.