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ICE is trying to turn higher. NYMEX is neutral.

Published Monday, October 19th, 2015

ICE did not live up to its bearish expectations on Friday but resistances were not closed above either. Weekly M/As were settled below suggesting lower numbers early this week. This morning, however, the contract is stronger so at the moment downside objectives are on hold. On ICE we saw a serious test of the crucial support area. It did prove to be crucial as it held and the contract settled above it meaning that flat is the most sensible position presently. This contract also closed below its weekly M/As but we shall have to see the important support to be settled below to turn bearish.

November ICE: It is the 40.45/50 area that is important as far as shorts are concerned. It was settled below on Friday but the contract opened above it with an upside gap. The 8-day M/A resistance is being put under pressure at the time of writing. It is at 41.01 currently. It makes sense for shorts to cover part of any existing positions. This should then be re-instated if 40.50/45 is settled back below today as such a move will re-validate the 39.46 downside target. On the other hand, it will only make sense to go flat on a close over the 8-day M/A.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.