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PVM Midday Report 22 October 2015

Published Thursday, October 22nd, 2015

Headlines

  1. Iran VP claims it can double oil exports to 2 mbpd within months of sanctions relief
  2. Nigerian exports of Bonny Light crude set for modest fall to 155,000 bpd in December
  3. UK retail sales jump 1.9% between Aug-Sep in biggest monthly rise since Dec’ 2013
  4. Spanish jobless rate eases to four-year low of 21.2% in 3Q

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Iran’s vice-president has added to recent optimistic predictions of increasing crude oil exports after claiming that it is ready to boost sales abroad by up to 1 mbpd in the months following sanctions relief. Nigerian exports of the Bonny Light crude grade are set to fall in December to 155,000 bpd and follows a similarly projected fall in sales of the Qua Iboe grade during the same month although other grades including Bonga and Forcados are set to rise.

Technicals: All eyes should be on RBOB. It has moved over its 5 and 8 day MAs – around 128.81 and 129.62 respectively – and is now testing the important c/p resistance at 130.29. Being over the 5 suggests a bit of recovery, being over the 8 pretty much confirms it and a move confirmed by a close over 130.39 would have the bears running for cover. It’s early days yet, but RBOB has a habit of giving reliable early warning signals. A m/c over the 5 and 8s this evening would be a big warning. Meanwhile the rest are still below the 5s. These need to be safely moved and closed over for a hint of upside. The 5s are around 46.24 WTI; 48.79 Brent; 146.27 Heat; and 447.75 Gasoil. Watch these levels and RBOB carefully.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.