Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Range bound and dull

Published Monday, October 5th, 2015

Introduction. The market is range bound. The numbers are virtually the same as the last report I wrote on Friday 18th September.  In these range bound conditions the short term MAs tend to perform differently. They congest, so that the 5, 8 and 13s come together around the same number, and in extended ranges the 34s also comes in around the same area. They then act as trapdoors to support or springboards to resistance and not as break outs or reliable trend following support or resistance. All contracts were below the s/t MAs by Friday evening’s close. This morning the crudes and Gasoil have poked their noses above them all, but Heat and RBOB are still below. This is not harmonious. RBOB, in addition, has a negative stochastic. In these conditions it’s advised to sit tight and wait for developments

WTI, overnight, has moved over its s/t MAs and the key c/p at 45.64. This needs to hold or it slips back into the range and will probably re-test the s/t MAs starting around 45.49 down to 45.18. The clue to any upside is holding over 45.64 and then moving and closing (m/c) over the important 55 day MA at 45.84. A m/c over here would give it some upside to around 47.10.

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Posted by Robin Bieber