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US commercial stocks are historically high

Published Thursday, October 22nd, 2015

The US crude oil picture is undoubtedly bearish. This was confirmed by the latest data from the EIA on oil inventories. The agency showed crude oil stocks jumping by more than 8 million bbls, higher than the API figure of 7.1 million bbls and well above analysts’ expectations of an increase of 3.9 million bbls. The nationwide build is made even more bearish by the fact that the US West Coast saw a reduction of 1.5 million bbls in crude oil stock piles. The weekly build pushed front-month WTI $1.09/bbl down on the day.

Current crude oil stocks at 477 million bbls are 26% higher than last year and 23% above the 5-year average. They are presently only 14 million bbls short of the all-time high achieved in April this year. Just how well-supplied the US is with crude oil is reflected in the fact that inventories have averaged a little over 455 million bbls this year, so far. This compares with 375 million bbls in 2014 and 377 million bbls in 2013.

Cushing stock levels are also high, not only on a weekly basis but historically, too. Last week actually saw a small reduction of 78,000 bbls yet inventories at the NYMEX delivery point at 54 million bbls are still 34 million bbls higher than this time last year and 17 million bbls over the 5-year average. This year’s average is at 54 million bbls whilst in 2014 it was 26 million bbls and the year before 44 million bbls.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.