Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Watch RBOB and the 5 day MAs generally

Published Monday, October 26th, 2015

Introduction. The market’s technical state has not changed much from Friday. The crudes remain below all the short term (s/t) MAs, but holding key support. Meanwhile Heat is at its 5 day MA, whilst RBOB is above both the 5 and 8s. Gasoil is languishing somewhat and below all the s/t MAs. The stochastics are positive on Heat, RBOB and Gasoil but still negative on the crudes, with Brent’s stochastic looking like it’s trying to turn. RBOB holds the key to the next leg. It’s difficult to see the contracts heading south if RBOB holds over the 5 and 8s, so watch these carefully. There is a lack of harmony amongst the contracts and this is preventing a clear cohesive view as to the direction of the next leg.  WTI is below the 5 day MA around 44.32, co-located with a 50% c/p, and also below the 8 and 13 day MAs. Whilst below the 5 day it is struggling, but has no target lower whilst over the c/p at 43.88. This may well be tested. A move confirmed by a close (m/c) below 43.88 would green light a leg down to 39.22. It is vulnerable whilst it is below the 5 day.

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Posted by Robin Bieber