Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Watch the 100-day M/A on ICE. Be flat on NYMEX.

Published Monday, October 5th, 2015

We take a quick look at weekly technicals before moving on to the daily picture. Friday’s settlement was neutral on ICE as this contract closed below the 13-week M/A but above the but above the 5 and 8-week M/As. The performance on NYMEX was bearish as all the weekly M/As, short, medium and long-term, were settled well below.


November ICE: Although the weekly status of this contract was neutral as far as daily technicals are concerned they were still more on the negative side. The downside target, the 40.50/45 gap/range support was not tested but resistances were not challenged either. This morning, however, the contract is strengthening and resistances are being put under pressure. The 5-day M/As at around 41.54 has been broken above and the contract has headed straight to the 8-day which is currently at 41.74, very close to the 100-day continuation M/A at around 41.70. Shorts are to keep a very close eye on this level and they are highly recommended to go flat if closed above. In this case the test of the 13-day M/A at around 42.02 should occur. A failure to close above it is a sell and a close above it is a buy. Shorts are advised to keep their positions if the 100 and 8-day M/As are above tonight’s close as under this scenario the 40.50/45 support area will remain a valid downside objective.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.